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βeta Solutions Quarterly Style Analysis – Q4 2023

Last year proved that weighting really does matter. Finance literature typically shows that market capitalisation weighting is inferior over long holding periods when compared to equal or factor weighting. 2023 was an exception to the rule. Focusing on actual style performance, the rally experienced in the last two months of the year gave a very much needed breath of recovery to momentum and growth, while value suffered. An interesting trend that emerged in December is playing out in in January 2024 with small and relatively illiquid shares dominating the large players. At the time of writing, the JSE small cap index is outperforming the Top 40 by 4.1%! Additionally, many pundits are saying that the JSE is ripe for a major upswing – if this does occur, we may see a value resurgence and a possible momentum crash, which is exactly what is predicted by one of our forecasting models. Alas, and as always, we don’t know where anything is heading given the current situation in the middle east and economic weakness from China, therefore, its best to take any prediction with a barrel of salt and ensure sufficient diversification across styles.

Agrarius - Historical Pricing